The work to develop a new regional long-term forecast was begun in late 1998 by the Long-Range Economic Forecast Task Force of the Denver Regional Council of Governments (DRCOG). The task force is comprised of business analysts, forecasters and planners representing both the public and private sectors.

During nearly a year of effort, the task force distilled data about the macro-economies of the United States and Colorado, along with information about growth and development from other regions in the United States, determining critical assumptions that affect growth and assessing the patterns of metropolitan development. In the summer of 1999, the task force’s recommendation for the regional forecast was adopted by the DRCOG Board of Directors for use in planning and policy efforts beginning in January 2000.

Planning and technical staff from virtually every community in the Denver region provided significant information to update baseline and local land development information used to produce small area forecasts, derived from the adopted regional forecast. This contributory effort was the beginning of a continuous endeavor by DRCOG to upgrade the baseline information used in its estimating and forecasting.

According to DRCOG, Regional Statistical Area (RSA) information indicates that Douglas County is expected to increase in population from 145,150 in 2000 to 296,575 in the year 2020; the number of households in Douglas County can be expected to rise from 54,650 to 119,800; and employment will increase from 54,775 to 122,825.

The population growth for the Denver region is expected to match its current rate for the next few years, slow to 1.6 percent for 2005-2015, and slow to 1.2 percent from 2015-2020 (slightly above the national growth rate). Employment growth is expected to follow a similar pattern. The average annual growth rate in the Denver region for the next few years will be 2.0 percent, slowing to 1.5 percent from 2005-2015, and nearly matching the national rate with a rate of 1.1 percent from 2015-2020.

The growth in population and households will continue to be focused on the suburban communities. The suburban areas of the region have shown a high rate of development during the past eight years. This pattern is expected to continue for two reasons.

A number of significant residential developments are only partially built-out at this time. Therefore, the forecast is for additional residential development in or near the locations of high residential growth during the past decade. The strength of the Denver region’s housing market, affordability concerns, and changes in the residential development industry will also result in development of new residential areas in the future. Currently, major mixed-use development activity is occurring at Crown Point, at the southeast corner of E-470 and South Parker Road (Hwy 83). At full buildout, the development is expected to employ more than 6,000 people.

Centura Health purchased 40 acres of land at the Crown Point development and has built Parker Adventist Hospital, which opened in February 2004 and includes general medical/surgical services, obstetrics, and emergency and trauma services. An expansion to 200 beds, as well as an adjacent physicians’ office building, is planned. In addition, adjacent to Parker, HealthONE has opened Sky Ridge Medical Center, a seven-floor, 106-bed, medical facility offering obstetrics-gynecology services, surgery, diagnostic cardiac and cancer services, a high-risk newborn nursery, and an emergency center complete with a helipad. The Center is located on 42 acres at the southwest corner of I-25 and Lincoln Avenue (just south of C-470). The 24-hour emergency hospital opened in mid-2003 and will ultimately expand to a capacity of 355 beds.

Idyllwilde (formerly Reata North), now owned by Village Homes, is 684.73 acres planned for more than 800 single-family homes, 300 acres of open space and a 49-acre site for a new school. Newland Communities' Reata property, over 1,700 acres, is currently under review for development potential.

Because Douglas County is growing so fast, a planning committee has recommended that the Douglas County School District build 10 new schools in the next five years. District enrollment is expected to climb to 45,290 by 2005.

The Denver region has become one of the leading metropolitan economies in the United States. The combination of telecommunication, high tech, transportation, and other base industries will result in continued leadership growth during the next 20 years.

During the next 10 years, changes in the growth patterns will result in impacts on local and regional public policy discussions. Most significantly, population growth will switch from people moving into the region to natural growth (births minus deaths of resident population). This change will likely mean greater emphasis on education and training to develop a capable workforce for the regional economy.

The University Center at Chaparral, located on the western border of Parker on Lincoln Avenue, is a merger of Arapahoe Community College, Metro State College of Denver, University of Denver, and University of Colorado at Denver. The facility, which opened in January 2000, can be conveniently accessed by more than a half-million people living within a 10-mile radius.  It offers offers high-tech facilities for higher education as well as classes online.

At the same time, the aging of the residential portion of the population will result in growth in the 60-years-plus age group (16.7 percent in 2010, and 20.8 percent in 2020). Consequently, a significant increase in demand for senior programs and services may be expected.

The DRCOG Regional Socioeconomic Model combines the local land development information, the regional forecast, and small area characteristic measurements to produce small area forecasts. Currently, the regional model uses information for 21 descriptive variables for each of the 1,500 development areas. Model variables represent things such as home-to-work travel time, median household incomes, accessibility to open space, and accessibility to roadways and transit. Each model run is for a five-year period, and nearly all variables are re-estimated to measure influence over the next five-year period. This feedback loop establishes a self-informing model that responds to the changing region.

More About Parker Economy